Samuel Eto’o and the Value of Statistics
[Updated version] The debate over Samu rages back and forth in both Barcelona and on this blog. I can’t say with any amount of certainty who is on what side in the Junta Directiva, but it seems fairly clear that there are several Samu detractors high up in the club and they are determined to [...]

[Updated version] The debate over Samu rages back and forth in both Barcelona and on this blog. I can’t say with any amount of certainty who is on what side in the Junta Directiva, but it seems fairly clear that there are several Samu detractors high up in the club and they are determined to get rid of the Cameroonian striker. I won’t bore you with conspiracy theories about who wants him out or why (he walked in on Laporta and Txiki slobbering over Youtube videos of Cronaldo!), but I will gladly bore you with a statistical analysis of Eto’o’s time so far in La Ciudad Condal.

Because it seems to be the major comparison being made by all of us (especially by Kevin and me in our various posts and comments), I’m going to go ahead and do a head-to-head with Samu and Thierry Henry, to see whether or not there can’t be some final resolution concerning the value of these two assets (and at this point one must consider them as assets rather than anything else since I’m attempting to look at this from a purely mathematical/statistical perspective; later I’ll bring in the human element, don’t worry).

First, Samu:

According to Soccernet, Eto’o has played in 142 games for Barcelona since joining at the beginning of the 2004/05 season. During that time he has scored 91 goals. That is, overall, a scoring rate of 0.641 goals per game.

Let’s break it down further, though, into individual competitions.

La Liga: 109 games, 77 goals (0.706 goals per game)
Champions League: 28 games, 12 goals (0.429 goals per game)
Copa del Rey: 4 games, 2 goals (0.500 goals per game)
UEFA Super Cup: 1 game, 0 goals (you can guess the goals per game rate, right?)

Now, let’s break it down by year and by compeition, to see whether or not the injuries have slowed his strike rate or not.

League:
04/05 - 37 games, 24 goals (0.649 goals per game)
05/06 - 35 games, 26 goals (0.743 goals per game)
06/07 - 19 games, 11 goals (0.579 goals per game)
07/08 - 18 games, 16 goals (0.889 goals per game)

With a slight dip in 06/07, Samu’s goal scoring rate has risen steadily, despite his injuries. It would be folly, however, to assume that he’ll score a goal per game now, especially since he hasn’t had a full season in which to either prove his extraordinary worth or make his flaws truly visible. That is, however, just the league. What of the Champions League, where he is accused of failing to find the back of the net (especially against English opposition)?

CL:
04/05 - 7 games, 4 goals (0.571 goals per game)
05/06 - 11 games, 6 goals (0.545 goals per game)
06/07 - 3 games, 1 goal (0.333 goals per game)
07/08 - 7 games, 1 goal (0.143 goals per game)

Obviously there is a marked decline in Samu’s goalscoring in European competition once he began to have injury problems. It’s hard to say whether the lack of goals is purely related to the injuries and when he made his returns to the game (usually in tough situations against much stronger competition than appears in the league, such as Liverpool in the quarters or ManU in the semis) or if it’s purely based on his inability to get the better of well-formed English defenses. My guess is that it’s a combination of the two, but I’ll explain more of that later, after the next round of stats.

It’s on to Thierry Henry, then. What has he contributed over the last several seasons? I’m going to start with the same amount of time (03/04 to 06/07) in order to avoid any of the debates about whether or not switching teams and positions could have hindered or helped Henry’s stats. Over the course of those 4 years, “TH14″ played in a total of 165 games for Arsenal, scoring 114 goals (0.691 goals per game).

Just like with Eto’o, let’s break it down competition-by-competition:

EPL: 118 games, 92 goals (0.780 goals per game)
Champions League: 36 games, 16 goals (0.444 goals per game)
FA Cup: 7 games, 4 goals (0.571 goals per game)
FA Community Shield: 3 games, 1 goal (0.333 goals per game)
Carling Cup: 1 game, 1 goal (1.00 goals per game, duh)

Now a year-by-year comparison with the league and CL:

EPL:
03/04 - 37 games, 30 goals (0.811 goals per game)
04/05 - 32 games, 25 goals (0.781 goals per game)
05/06 - 32 games, 27 goals (0.844 goals per game)
06/07 - 17 games, 10 goals (0.588 goals per game)

Obviously Henry was a major force in the EPL for several years, his powers waning a bit with his injuries during his final year there, but it’s hard to argue with the sustained 0.780+ goals per game rate, isn’t it? Only one of Samu’s years exceeded that rate (07/08 at 0.889 goals per game, which actually exceeds anything rate Henry ever scored at in the Prem) while only one of Henry’s failed to do so (06/07 at 0.588 goals per game).

CL:
03/04 - 10 games, 5 goals (0.500 goals per game)
04/05 - 8 games, 5 goals (0.625 goals per game)
05/06 - 11 games, 5 goals (0.455 goals per game)
06/07 - 7 games, 1 goal (0.143 goals per game)

There is, just like with Eto’o, a drop in performance in the CL in the last year of Henry’s time with Arsenal. It is, in fact, the exact performance rate. Let’s compare overall strike rates between Eto’o and Henry:

League: Henry holds the edge here at 0.780 compared to 0.706 (if you were to adjust Eto’o’s appearance numbers upwards to meet those of Henry — that is, 118 appearances in 4 years — you would get 118 games, 83 goals. That makes the difference 9 goals over a 4 year period when adjusted. The actual difference is 77 for Eto’o, 92 for Henry.

CL: Henry again holds an advantage in European competition, but not by any convincing margin (0.444 compared to 0.429). Again, if you adjust the number of games Eto’o appeared in from 28 to 36, you get 15 goals. That’s a difference of 1 goal between himself and Henry. The actual difference was 4 goals (12 in 28 for Eto’o compared to 16 in 36 for Henry).

In domestic tournaments (eg Copa del Rey), both tend towards a goal every two games (0.500 goals per game) and so are a virtual statistical tie. If Eto’o’s appearances are upped to meet Henry’s (that is, 11 games instead of 4) his numbers are 11 games, 5.5 goals rather than Henry’s 11 games, 6 goals. If you discount the Carling Cup — a 2-1 victory over Wigan that still resulted in Arsenal being bounced on away goals — there’s an exact statistical tie at 10 games, 5 goals each.

[Updated paragraph] Just one more bit of statistical fun: Over his whole Arsenal career, Thierry Henry appeared in 369 games, scoring 230 goals. That’s 0.623 goals per game. Eto’o’s Barcelona career has garnered him the aforementioned 0.706 goals per game 0.641 goals per game. The above analysis does not take into account the first few years of Henry’s Arsenal career because they do not accurately reflect the current form Henry is capable of. Eto’o is a distinct disadvantage in these stats because Henry had his 3 of his 4 best years at Arsenal precisely in the 4 years analyzed. Only the 03/04 season was better for goals per game analysis from Henry’s point-of-view (25 games, 24 games is a maddening 0.960 goals per game!).

Overall, Henry’s performances in the EPL suggest he is capable of being a better striker than Eto’o. However, Eto’o has proven his worth time and again as a striker against Spanish teams. It might be a smart play on Pep’s part to split time between his slightly ailing strikers and give Henry the bulk of the starts against English teams in the CL while smaller, slower teams will be cut to shreds by Eto’o. The fluidity of the Spanish game (and I would argue the brilliance of it) plays more into Eto’o’s hands than Henry’s, but there is true talent on both sides of this question. Thus, we must never forget that both are consummate professionals in how they approach fitness and the game itself.

Henry’s gift is his ability to integrate with the rest of the squad, while Eto’o’s mouth often gets him into trouble. If one ignores Eto’o, he becomes a fantastic striker, bent on proving you a fool for forgetting about him, but if you allow him to get under your skin, like so many defenders, he will punish your backlash severely. Henry doesn’t seem to have that personality, which is nice from a club’s perspective, but Eto’o is a crowd favorite for a reason: he has on-the-field charisma that, when properly corralled, excites the whole team. Eto’o is never afraid of playing second fiddle so long as he gets the proper credit when the ball goes into the net off his foot, but Henry may not be capable of watching Messi take the reins and drive the team upwards in both the domestic and continental competitions.

Still, I would like to see both of them stay because if, as many have said, Eto’o will bring us La Liga and Henry will bring us the CL, it’s well worth their wages and the lack of a transfer fee in the future to bring back silverware. If we want Benzema, we should get Benzema and put him through the paces, growing him into a striker that will take over for Eto’o when/if he moves on after his contract is done, but giving up Eto’o for an unproven commodity from an inferior league makes very little sense.

Giving up Henry makes even less sense so soon after spending a large chunk of cash on him and then not letting him play his preferred position. There are enough games and enough injuries to give him a solid 20-30 starts as well as keeping Eto’o happy and Bojan in a solid rotation. Were I to wager on it, I’d say Eto’o gets a grand total of 23 goals, Henry 20, and Bojan 15. With Messi, Iniesta, Keita, Toure, and Hleb all contributing (especially San Leo), that makes for a pretty serious number of goals.

Outro: Henry has another year of stats that we shouldn’t forget to include. His performances of the 06/07 season shouldn’t be used to judge his career as a whole even if Barcelona’s stats are a bit skewed by his new position and new team. Adapting to a new role in a new home is never easy, especially not with the pressure Henry has been under, but let’s consider, for a moment, the stats available from 07/08:

League: 30 games, 12 goals (0.400 goals per game)
Champions League: 10 games, 3 goals (0.300 goals per game)
Copa del Rey: 2 games, 1 goal (0.500 goals per game)

I will not attempt to put a value on Henry’s performances as a winger compared to Eto’o’s as a forward, but it is good to note that Henry has the ability to score goals both in domestic and European competition despite Rijkaard’s tendency to put him on the wing. It is precisely for this reason (his positioning) that I have not included his stats from his year at Barça in the above comparison. It would not be fair at all to Henry nor would it further validate Eto’o’s continued stay at the club to compare the two. However, it must be noted that Eto’o floundered more than Henry when he was placed on the wings, which happened several times during the season (especially in the CL). Regardless of what that tidbit means, the comparison above between two strikers is the important part that must truly be considered.

It’s official: Dani Alves is in the house
Yessss! Cue my Darth Vader voice as I am saying, “The plans are almost complete.” Daniel Alves da Silva is official, and this shot is for the ladies in the house. I believe Alves is saying “I know that Yaya’s bicep is bigger. It’s supposed to be.” He’s 24 years young, and almost 5-foot-8 inches tall. [...]

Yessss! Cue my Darth Vader voice as I am saying, “The plans are almost complete.” Daniel Alves da Silva is official, and this shot is for the ladies in the house. I believe Alves is saying “I know that Yaya’s bicep is bigger. It’s supposed to be.”

He’s 24 years young, and almost 5-foot-8 inches tall. And he’s our most exciting signing of the summer transfer season. He’s also the most expensive defensive transfer ever. Is he worth it? Time will tell.

Interested fans will recall that some of us were saying that Mr. Henry was the most exciting transfer of last summer, and one Toure Yaya turned out to be in fact the most exciting signing of the summer, in the 20/20 goodness that is hindsight.

Be that as it may, I repeat:

This is the most exciting signing of the summer season. Davi Alves is considered by most to be the best right back in the world. He is a terrier on the pitch, who seems to take losing possession of the ball personally, as does our very own Leo Messi. The road was long, which began with our offer of a lot of money, and Sevilla’s own Skeletor saying “For 25 million, I will send them Alves’ boots, so that a junior player can wear them.”

And so it went. We don’t have exact numbers, but figure he’s a 30 million Euro man, by the time the incentives, etc are finished.

A quote from the very geeked Mr. Alves: “I am hungry to start playing and the sooner the better so I can show they did not make a mistake with me.”

I like to hear that. It’s hunger, the same kind of hunger that makes him the fittest player on the Brazilian national side, the same kind of hunger that made him a thorn in the side of every Liga team for season after season.

I’m not big on stats, so I won’t bother with them, because he’s starting from ground zero with us. But the question is demanded: Why did we sign him?

Well, we had a pretty good right back, Gianluca Zambrotta. But he wanted to go home and frankly, he would have been sent home anyhow after this signing. Alves is faster, better with the ball, a better shooter and an exceptional crosser of the ball. He’s also one of the world’s best free kick takers, not quite up there with the soon-to-be-gone Gordinho. It is a significant upgrade for the position, and more importantly makes us verge on unplayable.

Last season, Zambrotta was an excellent defender, but not really a threat. This season, Alves can stop an attacker, steal the ball, lead the break, lace in a cross or take the shot himself. The other big part of his game is free kicks, which means the “when in doubt, foul Messi” program is officially at an end. Who’s more dangerous, Messi in the box or Alves over a dead ball, just outside the box?

“I am happy to be living this dream,” says Alves.

So let’s all join in a rousing Blaugrana welcome for Dani Alves.

P.S. Yes, the plan is almost complete, because there’s still that striker complexity.

It’s official: Dani Alves is in the house
Yessss! Cue my Darth Vader voice as I am saying, “The plans are almost complete.” Daniel Alves da Silva is official, and this shot is for the ladies in the house. I believe Alves is saying “I know that Yaya’s bicep is bigger. It’s supposed to be.” He’s 24 years young, and almost 5-foot-8 inches tall. [...]

Yessss! Cue my Darth Vader voice as I am saying, “The plans are almost complete.” Daniel Alves da Silva is official, and this shot is for the ladies in the house. I believe Alves is saying “I know that Yaya’s bicep is bigger. It’s supposed to be.”

He’s 24 years young, and almost 5-foot-8 inches tall. And he’s our most exciting signing of the summer transfer season. He’s also the most expensive defensive transfer ever. Is he worth it? Time will tell.

Interested fans will recall that some of us were saying that Mr. Henry was the most exciting transfer of last summer, and one Toure Yaya turned out to be in fact the most exciting signing of the summer, in the 20/20 goodness that is hindsight.

Be that as it may, I repeat:

This is the most exciting signing of the summer season. Davi Alves is considered by most to be the best right back in the world. He is a terrier on the pitch, who seems to take losing possession of the ball personally, as does our very own Leo Messi. The road was long, which began with our offer of a lot of money, and Sevilla’s own Skeletor saying “For 25 million, I will send them Alves’ boots, so that a junior player can wear them.”

And so it went. We don’t have exact numbers, but figure he’s a 30 million Euro man, by the time the incentives, etc are finished.

A quote from the very geeked Mr. Alves: “I am hungry to start playing and the sooner the better so I can show they did not make a mistake with me.”

I like to hear that. It’s hunger, the same kind of hunger that makes him the fittest player on the Brazilian national side, the same kind of hunger that made him a thorn in the side of every Liga team for season after season.

I’m not big on stats, so I won’t bother with them, because he’s starting from ground zero with us. But the question is demanded: Why did we sign him?

Well, we had a pretty good right back, Gianluca Zambrotta. But he wanted to go home and frankly, he would have been sent home anyhow after this signing. Alves is faster, better with the ball, a better shooter and an exceptional crosser of the ball. He’s also one of the world’s best free kick takers, not quite up there with the soon-to-be-gone Gordinho. It is a significant upgrade for the position, and more importantly makes us verge on unplayable.

Last season, Zambrotta was an excellent defender, but not really a threat. This season, Alves can stop an attacker, steal the ball, lead the break, lace in a cross or take the shot himself. The other big part of his game is free kicks, which means the “when in doubt, foul Messi” program is officially at an end. Who’s more dangerous, Messi in the box or Alves over a dead ball, just outside the box?

“I am happy to be living this dream,” says Alves.

So let’s all join in a rousing Blaugrana welcome for Dani Alves.

P.S. Yes, the plan is almost complete, because there’s still that striker complexity.

Dundee - Barcelona (Preseason)
There’s little to say about the match, really, but here are a couple of streams where you can watch it: Humsurfer (thanks, ballbeav) Livefooty (thanks, Light) There’s also always Radio Barca on the official site. Please put your comments about the game (and whatever else) in this post.

There’s little to say about the match, really, but here are a couple of streams where you can watch it:

Humsurfer (thanks, ballbeav)

Livefooty (thanks, Light)

There’s also always Radio Barca on the official site.

Please put your comments about the game (and whatever else) in this post.

Riiiing! Time for a new beginning, sort of. Pre-season opus.
Pre-season begins tomorrow, with as many unanswered questions as there are stars in the sky. No, I don’t have any answers, but I do have a boatload of speculation, which can be just as much, if not more fun. Here’s who is scheduled to appear with the squad, and when: Monday: Valdes, Henry, Yaya, Marquez, Jorquera, Oleguer, [...]

Pre-season begins tomorrow, with as many unanswered questions as there are stars in the sky. No, I don’t have any answers, but I do have a boatload of speculation, which can be just as much, if not more fun.

Here’s who is scheduled to appear with the squad, and when:

Monday: Valdes, Henry, Yaya, Marquez, Jorquera, Oleguer, Sylvinho, Krkic, Ronaldinho, Gudjohnsen, Pinto, Crosas, Abidal, Pique, Caceres

Tuesday: Messi

Saturday: Keita, Alves, Eto’o

July 23: Xavi, Iniesta, Puyol

Two-a-day sessions are scheduled at the Miniestadi, which will become the first team’s practice home, because Guardiola likes it so much, and is used to it. And these days, what Pep wants, Pep gets.

Now, what we don’t know is who will actually show up. The big rumor is that Ronaldinho is going to Article 17 our asses, and buy out his contract. He won’t show up for training, and someone from Milan is actually in Barcelona to facilitate the process and put the ultimate smack down. We still get paid, Milan saves the money, then they can use it to finalize that cut-rate Adebayor deal and conclude what would be a great summer for them, at our expense.

The excuse Ronaldinho will use will be the club’s refusal to allow him to play for his country in the Olympics. Stay tuned.

The players listed above are who we’ll be beginning the pre-season with. On the block, however, are Crosas, Gudjohnsen, Ronaldinho, Eto’o and Oleguer. We would LOVE to find homes for all of them either while on the tour, or before the summer transfer window closes.

Note that one name is absent from the above list: Aleksandr Hleb. We’ve signed him, we think. Arsenal says no, we haven’t because we’ve offered 15 million, and they want 18 million. Whatever. Look for that deal to be finalized and announced next week at the absolute latest. Hleb will then join the team wherever they are.

More unanswered questions include: Eto’o? Whither thou goest, cranky Cameroonian? We’re playing a dangerous game with him. If we are going to sell him, we have to sell him thisfreakingyearrightnow! Augggggh! Does anyone want to contemplate losing Eto’o for peanuts next season, or free transfer the following season? Repeat after me: “No, uncle Kxevin.”

What about Ronaldinho if the Milan rumors aren’t true? Does he start the season with us, get in shape, play his way back into the side then we deal him in January? That’s more likely, frankly, than the Article 17 business. Then again, if the relationship is that damaged, he wants out and we want him out. So open that checkbook, R10.

Can we find a home for our we-want-outs, Crosas, Gudjohnsen and Oleguer? Rumors have swirled, nobody concrete has bitten. Guardiola says that Crosas is a first-teamer until he is sold. And we’ll probably put him out there in pre-season so that he can show off and we can get some money for him.

The ugly spectre looming over all of this is the unsettled board. Even if we believe the Cruyff in as sporting director rumors (then he can stop trying to run the team from his newspaper column, and put his ass on the line), it’s still gutted. Can it do what it needs to do in the transfer market? And what about that big, strong “9″ that Guardiola is so craving to make his happy world complete?

Well, how about this:

Sport (yes, the ever-reliable Sport) is reporting that we are going to offer Arsenal Eto’o plus 10 million for Adebayor, for our final offer. This gives us our man, and gives Arsenal a replacement. Problem solved, right?

Now before the screaming begins, this is probably what the board is thinking:

1. Man, we want Eto’o gone.
2. If we’re going to sell, it has to be this year. Next year, he’s cut-rate because it’s that or free transfer.
3. Adebayor is younger, bigger and stronger. His up side is unrealized. We know what Eto’o can do, which is….
4. NOT score against Premiership sides. If Adebayor gets us past those hurdles, the risky move is worth it.
5. Can Eto’o recover from his injuries, or is he really the player who can’t outrun Rio Ferdinand now?

He’s been on the market for months, with no takers. We valued him at 40 million, knowing that we’d deal at 30 million. Not a peep. Rumors, but nothing serious. I don’t know what other teams know that we don’t, but there’s something going on that is simpler and deeper that “They’ve said they don’t want him, so wait for them to come to us.” I’d love to know what it is.

We have six friendlies scheduled: July 24 v Hibernian, July 26 v Dundee United, July 30 v Fiorentina, Aug. 3 v Chivas (in Chicago, I’ll be there along with a few other folks), Aug. 6 against the New York Red Bulls and Aug. 16 for the Gamper match v Boca Juniors.

Also, there are two Champions League qualifiers scheduled: 12 or 13 and 26 or 27 August. A reminder: Those qualifying rounds are knockout. For us to not qualify would be catastrophic. Laporta would be run out of town on a rail, and Guardiola would become a wanted man.

Questions still to come: What will be the ultimate squad composition? What B-teamers will be moved up? What will the starting XI be?

Stay tuned for this and more, on “As the Barca Turns.”